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Our biggest allocation changes have been in fixed income. Managing rates exposure dynamically is key to adding value for clients. As rates collapsed in August and bond prices went up, we sold all US Treasuries and UK gilts. This movement reversed on the US election and UK Budget, so we have been buying the bonds back at lower prices.

In alternatives, we moved from broad commodities into a carbon trading fund. Carbon is a niche, new market with few specialist investors, making it a rich environment for returns. In equities, we remain overweight. We cut positions in utilities, as they looked overbought. They were at risk if interest rates rose again, as then happened. We rotated back into US equities to increase our allocation there.

Our biggest conviction is that this is a trader’s market. The market narrative has changed several times in the past 12 months alone. That was even before the US election. You can add value by managing portfolios dynamically within and across asset classes.

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How would you describe 2024 in three words?

Elections, pivots, change

What is your top book, podcast or TV recommendation this year?

Books: Thinking in Bets, Annie Duke. It’s about improving decision making in the face of uncertainty. 

Project 2025’s Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise – a partial playbook for what’s next in the US.

Podcast: The Money Maze 

TV: The Day of the Jackal (Sky)

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