Charles-Henry Monchau

We continue to favour some long-term themes:

US exceptionalism. A higher return on equity, fastest GDP growth and higher exposure to innovation via technology sectors mean the outperformance of US equities over the rest of the world is likely to continue 

Money debasement. The three Ds (demographics, debt and de-globalisation) imply that money debasement is here to stay. This leaves no choice to investors: favour risk assets and store of value. 

The East-West divide. Emerging and developing worlds want to emancipate from the US. This means we will ultimately shift from the US dollar as a reserve currency to a multi-polar world with alternative currencies (yuan, gold but also bitcoin) gaining market share. This trend also favours friendshoring,  nearshoring or onshoring with sector winners (industrials, materials, utilities) and country winners (India and southeast Asia).

AI and the urgent need to improve productivity. In a world with rising costs (labour, commodities, transport) there is no other choice for companies than to improve productivity. In this context, AI and machine learning are likely to be in high demand across most sectors.

Energy transition winners and losers. Nuclear (meaning uranium) seems to be the only clean energy (so to speak) that is able to replace fossil fuels    

Among our new themes is the US post-election. Deregulation and free capitalism in the US will support mid-caps, financials and private equity firms. Plus, a crypto-friendly White House.